Will The Volume of Homes Sold Continue During the Second Half of 2016?
The 2nd half numbers for Kelowna’s real estate market, in any year, are pretty easy to predict just by looking at the first half’s numbers. That was easy. Now go back to what you were doing and stop hyperventilating if you’ve just locked yourself into a 25 year mortgage. Here’s why.
No one’s arguing that the first six months in our market has been good. Homes are selling everywhere, in every price point including lakefront mansions and beat up mobiles. Will this continue? History tells us that it should because the second half of a year can always be predicted by what happened during the previous six months. Here is some raw data…
Total number of sales first 6 months Total number of sale second 6 months
2016 2,032 ?,???
2015 1,584 1,458
2014 1,392 1,404
2013 1,220 1,189
2012 1,092 951
2011 1,040 904
Even if we put our calculators away it’s easy to see a trend and conclude….
IF THE FIRST HALF’S NUMBER IS HIGH, THE SECOND HALF NUMBER WILL BE HIGH. IF FIRST HALF NUMBER IS LOW, SEND HALF NUMBER WILL BE LOW.
We’re outperforming 2015 by a wide margin so we could put things on cruise control and hit 3,500 residential sales this year. The old benchmark of trying to hit 200 home sales a month to consider it a reasonable month is long gone and the new normal is 250 homes. If the 2,000 homes benchmark is a statistical anomaly, and it could be, we’ve still averaged over 250 homes sold per month over the past 30 months with no signs of things letting up. Once outsiders discover the beauty of a community like ours there’s no looking back and the battle to find affordable housing will never be won.